03/12/2004: 
Breaking News
Madrid Investigation Yields Contradictory Evidence
from Control Risks Group [subscription required]
My first thought after the Oklahoma City bombing was Islamic terrorists, and then we were all made to feel silly when it turned out to be a super-white boy. So be careful what you think here
As Spanish investigators try to establish who was responsible for the 11 March bombings of commuter trains in Madrid that killed nearly 200 people, evidence has emerged to support two competing theories: one blaming the attack on Basque separatists, the other blaming it on Islamic militants.
The Spanish authorities were quick to blame extremists from the Basque separatist group ETA for the atrocity. There is solid forensic and circumstantial evidence to back that theory, notably the design of the bombs and the disruption of similar plots (on a smaller scale) in recent months. Later developments – the discovery of a truck containing detonators and a cassette tape of the Quran at a station where one of the trains originated, and a claim of responsibility by a group that has previously claimed to speak for al-Qaida – apparently pointed to the involvement of Islamic extremists. Nevertheless, Control Risks believes that the attacks were carried out by a splinter group of ETA. The evidence for this theory is much stronger, while the timing of the attacks, shortly before elections, and the lack of involvement by suicide bombers strongly back this theory. However, regardless of the bombers' true identity, the failure of the Spanish intelligence services to detect the plot is a serious cause for concern.
See more for the evidence so far for both
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The case for ETAThe Madrid attack is unlike most previous ETA operations, both in its target – ETA has normally concentrated on attacking the state, the security forces and the tourist industry – and in certain details of its execution. Nevertheless, forensic evidence from three devices that failed to explode suggest that the explosives and technology match those previously used by ETA.
A splinter group of younger, less experienced ETA supporters may have carried out the bombings independently of the group's weakened mainstream, which has been decimated by police operations over recent months. Younger members are likely to be less aware of the damaging effect that such a devastating attack is likely to have on militant Basque separatism. The atrocity is likely to backfire politically and may alienate many of ETA's sympathisers and benefactors. Control Risks therefore considers that further attacks are unlikely in the immediate future.
Recent events point to increasing activity by a younger wing of ETA over the last few months. Officers from the Guardia Civil (armed police force) on 29 February arrested two suspected ETA members in Cañaveras (Cuenca, about 94 miles (150km) from Madrid) carrying 1,115lb (506kg) of chloratite explosive and 66lb (30kg) of titadyne (dynamite) in a truck. Both were young and inexperienced.
There is also a clear precedent for a co-ordinated ETA attack on trains. During a major operation on 24-26 December 2003, police intercepted and deactivated two bombs that had been placed by two young Basque terrorists on a train from Irun to Madrid. The bomb was primed and set to detonate as the train reached Madrid's Chamartín station. The two men on the same day placed a device under a railway track in Zaragoza (Aragon), which exploded and caused minor damage to a train. A further bomb was planted at a station in Samper de Calanda, on the line linking Zaragoza to Barcelona (Catalonia). The two men were arrested, along with another suspect who was about to plant a bomb on a San Sebastian-Madrid train.
The case for al-Qaida
Simultaneous, co-ordinated bombings to cause mass casualties is a hallmark of al-Qaida. Spain's involvement in the Iraq war would also seem to support the involvement of Islamic extremists. However, the evidence to date of Islamic extremist involvement is scant and circumstantial. The cassette recording of the Quran could easily be purchased at any Islamic bookshop. It is possible that the tape was placed there to throw investigators off the trail. Similarly, the claim of responsibility by the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigade, which claims to speak for al-Qaida, must be treated with scepticism. The group has previously claimed responsibility for insurgent attacks in Iraq, the Istanbul bombings, and the power blackout in the US north-east in late 2003. The blackout was caused by a fault, not terrorism, and no evidence has ever been found linking the group to the attacks in Iraq or Turkey.
Spain, which has a large and growing population of Arab and Muslim migrants, particularly from North Africa, has never suffered a major terrorist attack by Islamic extremists, though it has disrupted a number of plots and served as a staging ground for attacks elsewhere. Islamic extremists have had a presence in Spain since the early 1990s, but the main link to al-Qaida concerns the 11 September hijacker Muhammad Atta, who is thought to have held a key meeting near Madrid in July 2001. Several other al-Qaida figures are known to have transited Spain or stayed there for short periods.
In mid-2003, Spanish magistrate Judge Baltasar Garzon issued a lengthy indictment against a number of Arab and Muslim immigrants on charges of providing logistical support to terrorists. In January 2003, Spanish police arrested several men, mainly of North African origin, on charges of plotting terrorist attacks in Spain. Most were later released. Another purported plot by an Algerian man to attack tourist areas in southern Spain was reportedly disrupted, but the suspect was never charged. A Muslim businessman in the city of Valencia was accused of serving as a go-between with the man who carried out the bombing of a synagogue in Tunisia in April 2002, but the investigation into his activities did not uncover a large network of supporters.
